Argentine Elections: Coordinated and Inauthentic Online Networks Promote Voter Absenteeism

Logically Bulletin: Argentine Elections: Coordinated and Inauthentic Online Networks Promote Voter Absenteeism

Logically used its proprietary open-source intelligence platform Logically Intelligence (LI) and coordinated inauthentic behavior (CIB) detection model to identify and analyze two online narratives that could result in decreased voter participation in the Argentine election.

By Matthew Treacy

As Argentina prepares to elect a new President this Fall, the country finds itself in a dire economic crisis. Annual inflation is at 114% (third-highest in the world) and a historic drought has halved its output of critical exports like soy and wheat.¹ More than two-fifths of Argentines say they can’t afford basic goods and services.² October’s general elections give voters the chance to voice their frustration and, perhaps, chart a new course for their country.

Argentina has compulsory voting, meaning that all citizens aged 18-70 must cast a ballot or pay a fine. Despite this civil obligation, Logically Intelligence identified four X (formerly Twitter) networks with suspected coordinated and inauthentic behavior that urged voters to #quedateencasa or “stay at home” this election cycle. To influence voters, these networks pushed two anti-government extremist narratives. One narrative propagated Agenda 2030-related conspiracy theories,³ including that all the presidential candidates plan to reinforce mandatory quarantines to enslave citizens. The other narrative features more mainstream anti-government rhetoric that peddles baseless claims the election process is fraudulent and encourages Argentines to abstain from voting as an act of rebellion.

Two Online Narratives that Could Lead to Low Voter Turnouts

Logically used its proprietary open-source intelligence platform Logically Intelligence (LI) and coordinated inauthentic behavior (CIB) detection model to identify and analyze two online narratives that could result in decreased voter participation in the Argentine election.

Narrative #1: Argentines Should Not Vote for Candidates that Support #Agenda2030

X users have urged Argentines to refrain from supporting any of the candidates in the Argentine elections, as they support the UN’s framework for sustainable development known as “Agenda 2030.” Conspiracy theories surrounding Agenda 2030 have been ubiquitous among online anti-government communities since 2020. The core message asserts that global elites have coordinated mass-scale killings, including the Covid-19 pandemic, to “speed up” progress towards the UN’s 2030 development goal. X users have co-opted this conspiracy theory to argue that the three main contenders Patricia Bullrich, Javier Milei, and Sergio Massa seek to continue these “globalist” ideals and are a threat to Argentines’ way of life.

Hashtags used to amplify this narrative:

#Agenda2030
#A2030
#Plandemia
#Nuevoordenmundial
#YoteAvise

Impact: This narrative could stir anti-government extremist sentiment in Argentina and lead to election-related violence if the elected candidate is considered a threat.

Narrative #2: Argentines Should Protest Election Corruption by Not Voting

In the last two months, X users have made several claims (without evidence) that the presidential election will be rigged and Argentines should protest by not voting. These claims range from concerns about ballot stuffing and bribed officials to narratives not commonly observed ahead of elections. For example, one post claimed the government “summoned” foreigners to serve as election officials,⁴ which garnered more than 19k unique views. Influential X users posting the hashtag #yonovoto urged Argentines to practice abstención activa or “active abstention” as an act of civil disobedience. Many argued that the 50 Argentine pesos (18 cents USD) fine for not voting is worth it to ensure the message reaches the government.

Hashtags used to amplify this narrative:

#fraude2023
#preparafraude
#SinDemocraciaEnArgentina
#falsademocracia
#EsDemocraciaOTirania
#MafiaORepublica

Impact: This narrative could cause Argentine voters to lose confidence in their democratic process and potentially result in civil unrest or election-related violence.

Coordinated and Inauthentic X Networks Spread Absenteeism Narratives

Logically’s proprietary CIB detection model identified four distinct X networks that amplified #yonovoto narratives between June and August 2023. Each network engaged in systematic amplification of narratives through reposts that could be indicative of a greater influence operation.

Looking Forward: Online Narratives and Election Integrity

Given the aforementioned potential impacts of these narratives, online discourse has the potential to threaten Argentine election integrity. This conclusion is more sobering considering many of the discussions appear to be coordinated by deceptive and automated accounts.

It is imperative that democratic governments that support free and fair elections, media, and civil society help confront threats to electoral integrity. Logically joins this fight by helping partners on the ground identify and address potentially harmful online narratives.

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