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ABP News' opinion poll has predicted a TMC victory in 2021.

ABP-CNX survey predicted that TMC-led by Mamata Banerjee is set to return to power in West Bengal with 151 seats.

ABP-CNX survey predicted that TMC-led by Mamata Banerjee is set to return to power in West Bengal with 151 seats.On February 15, 2021, ABP News broadcasted an opinion poll for the upcoming Assembly elections in West Bengal. The polling was conducted by CNX, a third-party polling agency, which predicted a Trinamool Congress (TMC) victory.

According to the poll, TMC-led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee will return to power with 41.09 percent votes. On the other hand, the Bharatiya Janta Party would face defeat with 36.64 percent.

In terms of the number of seats, ABP-CNX Survey predicted that the TMC would bag 151 seats (given +/- of 5 seats), and the BJP would finish second with 117 seats in the 294 seat-assembly. The survey further states that if TMC successfully formed an alliance with Congress and some left parties, it would be possible for the alliance to get around 220 seats in the elections scheduled for April-May 2021.

According to the survey, BJP is likely to see a 26 percent surge in their voter base compared to the 2016 assembly elections in the state.

The CNX survey was conducted in West Bengal from January 23 to February 7 with 8,960 people in 112 Assembly constituencies.

Although it is essential to bear in mind that there are many challenges in accurately conducting election surveys that measure voter preferences. The results of these surveys, which are used to make seat predictions, can also have a large margin of error due to various reasons, unique to each state in India. The record of opinion polls in several state elections and in the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections shows that opinion polls have many weaknesses while making forecasts.

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