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CLAIM ID

b7bf39c9

Every riot helps BJP in gaining more in polls.

A study by Yale University in 2016 show that BJP saw a 0.8 percentage point increase in their vote share after a riot in the year prior to an election

A study by Yale University in 2016 show that BJP saw a 0.8 percentage point increase in their vote share after a riot in the year prior to an electionIn 2016, Yale University published a paper titled, "Do parties matter for ethnic violence? Evidence from India." The paper was written by three political scientists, Gareth Nellis, Michael Weaver, Steven Rosenzweig. Using a novel application of the regression-discontinuity design, they studied if random victory by candidates representing India’s Congress party in close state assembly elections between 1962 and 2000 reduced Hindu-Muslim rioting. Their study revealed that had Congress lost all close elections in this period, India would have experienced 11 percent more riots. It further revealed that "the election of a single Congress MLA in a district brought about a 32% reduction in the probability of a riot breaking out prior to the next election."

Analysing the effect of riots on the vote share of “Hindu nationalist parties”, the paper notes that “the BJS/BJP saw a 0.8 percentage point increase in their vote share following a riot in the year prior to an election”. “The polarization of the electorate induced by riots disadvantages Congress in subsequent elections, making it counter-productive for the party’s affiliates to instigate riots following an electoral loss,” the paper notes.

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