False: Earthquakes can be predicted by observing planetary alignment.

By: Anurag Baruah
February 10 2023

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Context

The 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria on February 6, in which over 20,0000 people died, has caused a surge in false and misleading narratives about the earthquake on social media. While many old posts and videos are being misattributed, an old claim that planetary alignment can cause seismic activity and one can predict earthquakes by observing planetary movements has resurfaced. 

The source of the claim is Frank Hoogerbeets, a man who says he is a researcher at a Dutch-based organization Solar System Geometry Survey (SSGEOS), which reportedly monitors geometry between celestial bodies related to seismic activity. On February 3, Hoogerbeets tweeted that an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 would hit South-Central Turkey, Jordan, Syria, or Lebanon region "sooner or later." This is being seen by social media users as a successful prediction of the Turkey earthquake by Hoogerbeets' technique involving observing planetary alignment. 

On February 6, Hoogerbeets posted another tweet in which he admitted that "there is much resistance within the scientific community regarding the influence of the planets and the Moon" on seismic activity. He, however, claimed that there is "no extended research that 'disproves' it." He also shared a screenshot of another one of his tweets in which he claimed that he had been able to predict the Turkey earthquake because of critical planetary geometry observed on February 4 and 5.

Hoogerbeets, who does not have a science degree, has since shot to fame on social media, gaining many followers, becoming the focus of Twitter discussions and comments, and battling fake accounts cropping up in his name. He has also made other predictions of earthquakes, including a large one originating in Afghanistan. However, experts have repeatedly stated that planetary alignment does not affect seismic activity, and earthquakes cannot be predicted by observing planetary movements. 

In Fact

Logically contacted Bill McGuire, Professor Emeritus Of Geophysical & Climate Hazards, University College, London, who stated that "there is no evidence whatsoever that planetary alignments can be used to predict earthquakes." McGuire further said, "In fact, no one has ever successfully predicted an earthquake, and it may well be that we will never be able to do this." He said earthquakes may be preceded by signs like variations in well levels, radon gas emissions, and changes in the electrical/magnetic properties of rocks, but often aren't.

The California Institute of Technology website states that it is not possible to predict the exact magnitude, time, and place of an earthquake currently. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) also says that neither the agency nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake, and there is no scientific method to do so yet. The USGS stresses that an accurate prediction needs to specify the date and time, the location, and the magnitude of the earthquake, which Hoogerbeets' tweet did not. 

"A prediction should state time, place, and magnitude. 'Sooner or later' does not constitute a time. So he did not predict the quake," author and geoscientist Roger Musson told Newsweek. 

We found that the Twitter feeds of Hoogerbeets and SSGEOS feature other similar predictions, and most did not precede any high-magnitude earthquakes. Further, many of these posts are vague regarding the region covered under the prediction. They often involve vast areas that may, in general, record such significant-magnitude earthquakes. They also included locations known to have major tectonic fault lines, which are more likely to record significant earthquakes. For instance, on January 18, SSGEOS tweeted that critical planetary geometry, or planetary alignment, from January 19 to 22 may cause a 7 or 8-point magnitude earthquake in the Americas in a few days. Hoogerbeets retweeted this post. We checked the USGS website and found that no such high-magnitude earthquakes were recorded during that period in the region. On December 20, 2022, SSGEOS posted that a major earthquake may happen in the December 23-26 period without specifying a particular location. Hoogerbeets retweeted this. Once again, we checked the USGS website and found no earthquakes of magnitude 7 or higher were recorded in December 2022. 

According to a news report published in the Express on February 24, 2017, Hoogerbeets predicted powerful earthquakes in December 2015 and May 2015, which did not materialize. At the time of his May 2015 prediction that a 9.8 magnitude earthquake would hit California owing to a planetary alignment, American astronomer and science blogger Phil Plait wrote a scathing piece in Slate, refuting Hoogerbeets' claims. "First, there is simply no way an alignment of planets can cause an earthquake on Earth. It's literally impossible. I've done the math on this before; the maximum combined gravity of all the planets under ideal conditions is still far less than the gravitational influence of the Moon on the Earth, and the Moon at very best has an extremely weak influence on earthquakes," he wrote.

The Verdict 

Thus, no evidence supports the claim that earthquakes can be predicted by observing planetary alignment. Scientists have also clarified that earthquake prediction is currently not possible. Therefore, we have marked the claim as false.